Volume 2 of "Kugahara Research Note", which has been suspended for more than eight months due to the busyness of the owner of the site, has been issued at last. As Vol. 1 handled the land, this issue handles people, i.e. population.
The records of past population are archived and can be viewed at Administration Information Center of City Office of Ohta-ku. The population was documented by branch offices during the early post-war period, and the documents Chofu Branch, in which the data for Kugahara were filed, of and before 1948 have been unfortunately lost. In this issue, the development of population of Kugahara after 1949 is being examined.

Graph 2-1shows the development of population of Kugahara between 1949 and 2003. The population data were taken from General Resident register as of 1st June for each year, as the movement of people by job change, new assignment and school change should be settled by this time of the year. The data between 1949 and 1968 are given as those of entire Kugahara Town on the old address system, and the data since 1969 are given separately for each Chome on the new address system. At the conversion of old and new address systems, the border was changed as shown in "History of Kugahara", and there are discontinuities in population and the number of households. The data of 1968, however, shows abnormality with discontinuity on both previous and following years, which may reflects possible confusion or mal-handling of adjustment due to the address conversion, which took place on 1 September, 1968.
The increase of population observed between 1949 and the first half of 60's shows strong correlation with the curve of the development of population of Tokyo's Ward Area. This period is characterized by the concentration of population to Tokyo during the years of post-war recovery through the high growth of economy. As an inhabitant of those days, I recall that farm lands and empty lots as the remains of air-raid, which still existed all over in early 50's, were converted into houses one after another and play grounds for kids squeezed.
The land-value inflated "Bubble" economy, which was triggered by the Plaza Accord in 1985, hit the land value of Kugahara, as shown in Kugahara Research Note Vol. 1. The population shows monotone decrease for 12 years from 1968. My impression as an inhabitant is that large residences were sold due to accession tax and be split into small houses or apartment houses, and that this would increase the population. The increase of population started as late as 1999, and it is understood that during the land-value bubble period, the land sold was left untouched or converted into parking lots, but the actual recovery of population delayed long after the bubble period and the shadow of the "lost ten years" covered Kugahara as well. The sharp increase of population between 1998 and 1999, backed up by the fact of sharp increase in 5-chome in particular, shows the completion of "Hills Kugahara" and the start of settling into them.

As described in the "History of Kugahara", the streets in Kugahara, which are set out neatly in a grid were made through redemarcation in late 20's. "History of Ikegami Town" lists the population and the number of households of Ikegami between 1926 and 1931, classified by the then hamlets. Graph 2-2 is a combined graphs of the population of this period and the one shown in Graph 2-1. It is astonishing to see that the extrapolation of the initial growth of population matches the curve of post-war increase, as if there had been steady increase, although there must have been temporary decrease of population due to the war and subsequent evacuation of people.

Graph 2-3 shows the development of population by sex and the number of households during the same period of years as Graph 2-1. In 1993, the population of women surpassed that of men. In the Ward Area of Tokyo, the reverse of standing between men and women happened two years earlier. In the graph of Tokyo Ward Area, all the curves seem to converge into one point in recent years, and this shows that the statistics is reaching to the state that one household consists of one man and one woman. The graph of Kugahara shows gap between the number of households and population, and it is estimated that the number of people per household in Kugahara is greater than the average of that in Tokyo Ward Area as a whole.

Your comments and impressions on the Kugahara Research Notes as an entry to the Guest Book or by mail are most welcome.

Coming soon....
"Is Kugahara really prominent residential area?".. "The impact of the falling birthrate and the aging population onto Kugahara" [Timing of release and order are yet to be decided.]